Today’s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers right now. As a result, if you’re thinking about buying for the first time or selling your current house to move into a home that better fits your needs, you may be asking yourself these two questions:

1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?
2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?
Here’s the context you need to help answer those questions.

1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely influenced by the supply and demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to Investopedia:

“Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are investment products similar to bonds. Each MBS consists of a bundle of home loans and other real estate debt bought from the banks that issued them . . . The investor who buys mortgage-backed security is essentially lending money to home buyers.”

Demand for MBS helps determine the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Historically, the average spread between the two is 1.72 (see chart below):

Last Friday morning, the mortgage rate was 6.85%. That means the spread was 3.2%, which is almost 1.5% over the norm. If the spread was at its historical average, mortgage rates would be 5.37% (3.65% 10-Year Treasury Yield + 1.72 spread).

This large spread is very unusual. As George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters (KCM), explains:

“The only times the spread approached or exceeded 300 basis points were during periods of high inflation or economic volatility, like those seen in the early 1980s or the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.”

The graph shows how the spread has come down after each peak. The good news is, that means there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

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Simply put: when there’s less risk, demand for MBS is high, so mortgage rates will be lower. On the other hand, if there’s more risk with MBS, demand for MBS will be low, and we’ll see higher mortgage rates as a result. Currently, demand for MBS is low, so mortgage rates are high.

2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, answers that question in a recent blog:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal and provides investors with more certainty. However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Bottom Line
The spread will shrink when the fear investors feel is eased. That’ll mean we should see mortgage rates moderate as the year goes on. However, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates, no one can know for sure exactly what will happen.

You may see media coverage talking about a drop in homeowner equity. What’s important to understand is that equity is tied closely to home values. So, when home prices appreciate, you can expect equity to grow. And when home prices decline, equity does too. Here’s how this has played out recently.

Home prices rose rapidly during the ‘unicorn’ years. That gave homeowners a considerable equity boost. But those ‘unicorn’ years couldn’t last forever. The market had to moderate at some point, and that’s what we saw last fall and winter.

As home prices dropped slightly in the back half of 2022, equity was impacted. Based on the most recent report from CoreLogic, there was a 0.7% dip in homeowner equity over the last year. However, the headlines reporting on that change aren’t painting the whole picture. The reality is, while home price depreciation during the second half of last year caused equity to drop, the data shows homeowners still have near-record amounts of equity.

The graph below helps illustrate this point by looking at the total amount of tappable equity in this country going all the way back to 2005. Tappable equity is the amount of equity available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV). As the data shows, there was a significant equity boost during the ‘unicorn’ years as home prices rapidly appreciated (see the pink in the graph below).

But here’s what’s key to realize – even though there’s been a small dip, total homeowner equity is still much higher than it was before the ‘unicorn’ years.

And there’s more good news. Recent home price reports show the worst home price declines are behind us, and prices have started to go up again. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Home equity trends closely follow home price changes. As a result, while the average amount of equity declined from a year ago, it increased from the fourth quarter of 2022, as monthly home prices growth accelerated in early 2023.”

When you look at the numbers today, the one thing that stands out is the strength of this housing market. We can see this is one of the most foundationally strong housing markets of our lifetime – if not the strongest housing market of our lifetime. Here are two fundamentals that prove this point.

1. The Current Mortgage Rate on Existing Mortgages
First, let’s look at the current rate on existing mortgages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), as of the fourth quarter of last year, over 80% of existing mortgages have a rate below 5%. That’s significant. And, to take that one step further, over 50% of mortgages have a rate below 4% (see graph below):

Now, there’s a lot of talk in the media about a potential foreclosure crisis or a rise of homeowners defaulting on their loans, but consider this. Homeowners with such good mortgage rates are going to work as hard as they can to keep that mortgage and stay in their homes. That’s because they can’t go out and buy another house, or even rent an apartment, and pay what they do today. Their current mortgage payment is more affordable. Even if they downsize, with today’s higher mortgage rates, it could cost more.

Here’s why this gives the housing market such a solid foundation today. Having so many homeowners with such low mortgage rates helps us avoid a crisis with a flood of foreclosures coming to market like there was back in 2008.

2. The Amount of Homeowner Equity
Second, Americans are sitting on tremendous equity right now. According to the Census and ATTOM, roughly two-thirds (around 68%) of homeowners have either paid off their mortgage or have at least 50% equity (see chart below):

In the industry, the term for this is equity rich. This is significant because if you think back to 2008, some people had to make the difficult decision to walk away from their homes because they owed more on the home than it was worth.

But this time, things are different because homeowners have built up so much equity over the past few years alone. And, when homeowners have that much equity, it helps us avoid another wave of distressed properties coming onto the market like we saw during the crash. It also creates an extremely strong foundation for today’s housing market.

Bottom Line
We are in one of the most foundationally strong housing markets of our lifetime because homeowners are going to fight to keep their current mortgage rate and they have a tremendous amount of equity. This is yet another reason things are fundamentally different than in 2008.

So, if you want to create wealth to help set you up for success later on, it may be time to prioritize homeownership. That’s because, whether you decide to rent or buy a home, you’ll have a monthly housing expense either way. The question is: are you going to invest in yourself and your future, or will you help someone else (your landlord) increase their wealth?

Bottom Line
Before putting your homeownership plans on hold, let’s connect to go over your options. That way, you’ll have expert advice on how to make the best decision right now and the best investment in your future.

Like “Majic” I’ll get it CLOSED!

(Maji) Maria Ramos Real Estate Advisor P.A
305-519-7940  |  maji@majisold.com
Coldwell Banker Realty

• Miami Realtor since 1993
• 2nd Generation Realtor
• Expert Negotiator
• Market Trends Expert
• Miami native
• Bilingual – English & Spanish
• About me: https://linktr.ee/majisold

For the latest breaking news for the Miami Real Estate Market please subscribe to my blog or YouTube channel:

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Buying and owning your home can make a big difference in your life by bringing you joy and a sense of belonging. And with June being National Homeownership Month, it’s the perfect time to think about all the benefits homeownership provides.

Of course, there are financial reasons to buy a house, but it’s important to consider the non-financial benefits that make a home more than just where you live.

Here are three ways owning your home can give you a sense of accomplishment, happiness, and pride.

You May Feel Happier and More Fulfilled
Owning a home is associated with better mental health and well-being. Gary Acosta, CEO and Co-Founder at the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP), explains:

“Studies have shown the emotional and psychological benefits that homeownership has on a person’s health and self-esteem . . .”

“Homeowners also tend to be more active in their local communities . . .”
After all, it makes sense that someone would want to help improve the area they’re going to be living in for a while.

You Can Customize and Improve Your Living Space
Your home is a place that’s all yours. When you own it, unless there are specific homeowner’s association requirements, you’re free to customize it however you see fit. Whether that’s small home improvements or full-on renovations, your house can be exactly what you want and need it to be. As your tastes and lifestyle change, so can your home. As Investopedia tells us:

“One often-cited benefit of homeownership is the knowledge that you own your little corner of the world. You can customize your house, remodel, paint, and decorate without the need to get permission from a landlord.”

Like “Majic” I’ll get it CLOSED!

(Maji) Maria Ramos Real Estate Advisor P.A
305-519-7940  |  maji@majisold.com
Coldwell Banker Realty

• Miami Realtor since 1993
• 2nd Generation Realtor
• Expert Negotiator
• Market Trends Expert
• Miami native
• Bilingual – English & Spanish
• About me: https://linktr.ee/majisold

For the latest breaking news for the Miami Real Estate Market please subscribe to my blog or YouTube channel:

~  Maji’s Market Minute Blog on MiamiHomeTrends.com http://bit.ly/majismarketminute-blog
~  YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/MajisMarketMinute

#majiramosrealestateadvisorpa #miami_home_trends #majismarketminute
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Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared.

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ this is the less common definition of the word:

“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.”

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off.

Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples:

Buyer Demand
If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to ShowingTime, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):

Home Prices
We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021, each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):

We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

Foreclosures
There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from ATTOM, a property data provider:

There will be an increase over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their homes to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

Bottom Line
There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

#googlemaji #unicorns #realestatemarket

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:“We have not seen the traditional uptick in new listings from existing homeowners, so undersupply of housing will continue to heighten market competition and put pressure on prices in most regions. Some markets are already heating up considerably, but price premiums that we saw last spring and summer are unlikely.”

Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com:“Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country . . .”

You’re probably feeling the impact of high inflation every day as prices have gone up on groceries, gas, and more. If you’re a renter, you’re likely experiencing it a lot as your rent continues to rise. Between all of those elevated costs and uncertainty about a potential recession, you may be wondering if it still makes sense to buy a home today. The short answer is – it does. Here’s why.

Homeownership actually shields you from the rising costs inflation brings.

Freddie Mac explains how:

“Not only will buying today help you begin to build equity, a fixed-rate mortgage can stabilize your monthly housing costs for the long-term even while other life expenses continue to rise – as has been the case the past few years.”

A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to protect yourself from future rent hikes. With inflation still high, when your rental agreement comes up for renewal, your property manager may decide to increase your payments to offset the impact of inflation. Maybe that’s why, according to a recent survey, 73% of property managers plan to raise rents over the next two years.

Having your largest monthly expense remain stable in a time of economic uncertainty is a major perk of homeownership. If you continue to rent, you don’t have that same benefit and aren’t as protected from rising costs.

Bottom Line
A stable housing payment is especially important in times of high inflation. Let’s connect so you can learn more and start your journey to homeownership today.

Like “Majic” I’ll get it CLOSED!

(Maji) Maria Ramos Real Estate Advisor P.A
305-519-7940  |  maji@majisold.com
Coldwell Banker Realty

• Miami Realtor since 1993
• 2nd Generation Realtor
• Expert Negotiator
• Market Trends Expert
• Miami native
• Bilingual – English & Spanish
• About me: https://linktr.ee/majisold

For the latest breaking news for the Miami Real Estate Market please subscribe to my blog or YouTube channel:

~  Maji’s Market Minute Blog on MiamiHomeTrends.com http://bit.ly/majismarketminute-blog
~  YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/MajisMarketMinute

#majiramosrealestateadvisorpa #miami_home_trends #majismarketminute
#majisold #majipaceramos #miamirealtor #miamirealestate #miamirealestategent
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#googlemaji #tipsforbuyers #inflation #homeownership

The process of buying a home can feel a bit intimidating, even under normal circumstances. But today’s market is still anything but normal. There continues to be a very limited number of homes for sale, and that’s creating bidding wars and driving home prices back up as buyers compete over the available homes.

Navigating all of this can be daunting if you’re trying to do it alone. That’s why having a skilled expert to guide you through the homebuying process is essential, especially today. Bankrate shares this perspective:

“Advice and guidance from a professional real estate agent can be invaluable, particularly amid a hot or unpredictable housing market.”

What’s the Key To Choosing the Right Expert?
It starts with trust. You’ll want to know you can trust the advice they’re giving you, so you need to make sure you’re connected with a true professional. No one can provide perfect advice because it’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen at every turn – especially in today’s market. But a true professional can give you the best possible advice based on the information and situation at hand.

They’ll help advocate for you throughout the process and coach you on the essential knowledge you need to make confident decisions. That’s exactly what you want and deserve.

Bottom Line
It’s critical to have an expert on your side who is skilled in navigating today’s housing market. If you’re planning to buy a home this year, let’s connect so you have a real estate advisor on your side to give you the best advice and guide you along the way.

Like “Majic” I’ll get it CLOSED!

(Maji) Maria Ramos Real Estate Advisor P.A
305-519-7940  |  maji@majisold.com
Coldwell Banker Realty

• Miami Realtor since 1993
• 2nd Generation Realtor
• Expert Negotiator
• Market Trends Expert
• Miami native
• Bilingual – English & Spanish
• About me: https://linktr.ee/majisold

For the latest breaking news for the Miami Real Estate Market please subscribe to my blog or YouTube channel:

~  Maji’s Market Minute Blog on MiamiHomeTrends.com http://bit.ly/majismarketminute-blog
~  YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/MajisMarketMinute

#majiramosrealestateadvisorpa #miami_home_trends #majismarketminute
#majisold #majipaceramos #miamirealtor #miamirealestate #miamirealestategent
#majiramos #Miamirealetstatemarket #priceyourhouseright
#homevaluation #zillow #zestimate #homecalculator #whatsmyhomeworth #hasmyhomegonedowninvalue  #miamihometrends #movingtomiami #miamineighborhoods
#googlemaji